Which economic reports move the stock market?

A handful of US releases move the whole market because they shape the outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates. Government agencies publish them on a set schedule.

Calendars rate each release by expected impact, often with one to three stars, as in the drawing at the top of this page. The ratings are the provider’s judgment, not a rule: in a week when the market is focused on inflation, even a mid-rated report can move prices. The main ones:

  • CPI (Consumer Price Index), Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), monthly, 8:30 a.m. ET: consumer inflation, headline and core (without food and energy).
  • PPI (Producer Price Index), BLS, monthly, 8:30 a.m. ET: prices received by producers, an early read on inflation in the pipeline.
  • Jobs report (Employment Situation), BLS, usually the first Friday of the month, 8:30 a.m. ET: nonfarm payrolls (NFP), the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings.
  • PCE price index, Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), monthly with personal income and spending, 8:30 a.m. ET: the inflation measure behind the Fed’s 2% goal.
  • GDP, BEA, quarterly (an advance estimate, then revisions), 8:30 a.m. ET: the size and growth of the economy.
  • Retail sales, Census Bureau, monthly, 8:30 a.m. ET: consumer spending in stores and online.
  • Initial jobless claims, Department of Labor, every Thursday, 8:30 a.m. ET: the most frequent read on layoffs.
  • FOMC decision, Federal Reserve, eight scheduled meetings a year: statement at 2:00 p.m. ET, press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET.

What time is US economic data released? New York and Riyadh times

Most US economic data comes out at 8:30 a.m. ET, during pre-market trading, so the first reaction shows up in index futures and pre-market prices, and often as a gap at the 9:30 open. The FOMC statement lands at 2:00 p.m. ET, in the middle of the afternoon session, and the Chair’s press conference starts at 2:30 p.m.

Release dates change every month and can slip: in 2025, a US government shutdown delayed several official reports. Check the calendar each morning; TradingView has one built in, and full session times are on the US stock market hours page.

Saudi Arabia does not use daylight saving time, so Riyadh is 7 hours ahead of New York during US daylight time and 8 hours ahead in US winter. In 2026, US clocks fall back on Sunday, November 1:

  • 8:30 a.m. ET data: 3:30 p.m. in Riyadh until November 1, 2026, then 4:30 p.m.
  • 2:00 p.m. ET FOMC statement: 9:00 p.m. in Riyadh, then 10:00 p.m.
  • 2:30 p.m. ET press conference: 9:30 p.m., then 10:30 p.m.
  • Dubai and Abu Dhabi: add one hour to the Riyadh times.

Expected vs actual: why the surprise moves the market

Next to each release, a calendar shows three numbers: the actual figure, the forecast (the consensus of economists’ estimates collected before the release) and the previous reading, which may be revised. By release time, prices already reflect the forecast, so the market reacts mainly to the surprise: actual minus forecast.

Hypothetical: monthly CPI is forecast at +0.3% and comes in at +0.5%, as in the drawing below. That is a hot surprise of 0.2 percentage points. Traders may read it as raising the odds that rates stay higher for longer, and rate-sensitive stocks can fall. A +0.3% print, in line with the forecast, may barely move prices.

The direction of the reaction is not fixed. Strong job growth can be read as good news for earnings or as bad news because it may keep rates high, depending on what the market fears at the time. Details matter too: core versus headline, revisions to earlier months, wages inside the jobs report.

Turn your phone sideways to read the drawing. Tap to close.

A hand-drawn calendar row for a hypothetical CPI release (actual +0.5%, forecast +0.3%, previous +0.4%) above a number line from 0.0 to 0.6%: a dashed marker at the forecast, a red marker at the actual, and the 0.2-point gap between them highlighted as the surprise. A grey band around the forecast is labeled in line; the left side reads cooler than expected and the right side hotter than expected.

How do stocks react to economic data? The first minutes

At the release, quotes can jump in a second. Just before the number, many liquidity providers pull their orders, so the bid-ask spread widens and a market order or a triggered stop can fill far from the last price. The first spike can run one way and then give back part or all of it as traders digest the details.

Because most data lands at 8:30 a.m. ET, the regular session opens an hour later with the news already in the price. Release days often bring gaps and a fast, wide first range, which is why some traders skip the opening range breakout on those mornings.

Turn your phone sideways to read the drawing. Tap to close.

A hand-drawn one-minute chart from 8:20 to 8:45 a.m. ET: tiny candles drift sideways before the release, a tall green candle shoots up at 8:30, then red candles give back most of the move. A yellow box over 8:30 to 8:40 reads let the first minutes pass. Below, spread bars stay small, jump at 8:30 and shrink again over the next few minutes.

How to trade around economic releases

A calendar does not tell you which way price will go. It tells you when risk jumps, so you can decide in advance what to do.

Weeks with a Fed meeting deserve the most care: the Federal Reserve and stocks guide explains why rates move valuations, and the VIX shows how much movement S&P 500 options are pricing. Practical rules:

  • Check the day’s releases every morning and note which ones fall inside your trading hours.
  • Decide before the number: be flat, or hold with a stop you can accept being gapped through.
  • If you hold, cut the size so a bigger-than-planned loss stays within your limits; the position size calculator helps.
  • Let the first 5 to 15 minutes pass before you trust any level.
  • Use limit orders: spreads widen around releases, and market orders can fill far away.
  • With options, implied volatility often rises into a big release and drops after it, so an option can lose value even when price moves your way.